Condos held their value better than houses this fall, but houses still outsell them nearly two to one. Here is what the September numbers actually say.

Ask two neighbours about the Victoria market right now and you may get two different answers. The house owner will tell you prices have softened. The condo owner will tell you values held steady. Both are right. September 2026 is a good example of why property type matters as much as location when you read a market headline.

The headline numbers

Across the Victoria Real Estate Board region, 463 properties sold in September 2026. That was down 16.4 per cent from September 2025 and down 21.7 per cent from August, after an unusually busy summer. At the same time, active listings rose to 3,811, up 3.2 per cent from a year earlier. More choice and fewer sales is the combination that tips a market toward buyers, and the Board's chair described September as a buyer's market, the first outside the early pandemic months since January 2015.

Within that total, the split by property type tells the real story:

• Single-family homes: 239 sold, down 17.3 per cent year over year
• Condominiums: 137 sold, down 11.0 per cent year over year
• Townhomes: 53 sold, down 26.4 per cent year over year

The takeaway: sales slowed everywhere in September, but condo sales slowed the least.

Prices: condos steadier, houses softer

Benchmark prices measure a typical property, so they are a cleaner comparison than average sale prices, which swing with whatever happened to sell that month.

In the Victoria Core in September 2026:

• Single-family benchmark: $1,280,100, down 2.0 per cent from September 2025 and down from $1,301,800 in August
• Condominium benchmark: $547,800, up 1.0 per cent from September 2025, though down from $553,600 in August

Worked numbers: the gap between a typical Core house and a typical Core condo is $732,300. Put another way, the typical condo benchmark sits at about 43 per cent of the typical single-family benchmark. That gap is the single biggest reason condos remain the entry point to ownership in the Core, and why they tend to hold up when buyers get cautious: they are where the demand concentrates when budgets tighten.

The takeaway: houses gave back a little ground this year; condos, on the benchmark measure, gave back none.

It depends where you look

The regional averages hide real differences by area, and this is where local advice earns its keep.

Single-family benchmarks, year over year:

• Victoria Core: $1,280,100, down 2.0 per cent
• Westshore: $1,019,800, down 1.2 per cent
• Peninsula: $1,261,000, down 1.4 per cent

Condominium benchmarks, year over year:

• Victoria Core: $547,800, up 1.0 per cent
• Peninsula: $639,900, up 3.4 per cent
• Westshore: $478,800, down 4.0 per cent

Peninsula condos were the strongest segment in the whole report, up 3.4 per cent year over year and the only benchmark to rise from August, up 1.5 per cent in a single month. That fits what downsizers are doing: low maintenance living close to the water, in Sidney and surrounding communities, is holding its appeal. Westshore condos moved the other way, down 4.0 per cent year over year, a reminder that newer condo supply competes hardest where the most new homes are being built.

The takeaway: there is no single condo market or single house market in Greater Victoria. There are neighbourhood markets, and they are moving in different directions.

Why condos are holding up

Three forces are working in condos' favour right now:

• Affordability. At roughly 43 per cent of the Core house benchmark, condos are within reach of buyers priced out of detached homes, including first-time buyers and downsizers freeing up equity.
• Demographics. British Columbians aged 65 and older now make up 21.1 per cent of the population, and that downsizer demand leans heavily toward low maintenance condo living.
• Scarcity of alternatives. With detached prices still above $1 million in every area, buyers who want to stay in the Core have few options below the condo price band.

Houses, meanwhile, face a different squeeze. Higher price points mean larger mortgages, and borrowing costs moved the wrong way for buyers this week: the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, a quarter of one per cent, from 2.25 per cent to 2.50 per cent on October 28, 2026, its first move in a year, citing persistent inflation. That makes the price gap between condos and houses matter even more, because every dollar of price is a dollar financed.

The takeaway: condos are not outperforming houses by accident. They sit at the price point where demand is deepest.

What to watch if you own a condo

Condo sellers should read September with clear eyes. Values held, but sales still fell 11 per cent year over year, and August was the busier month: 175 condos sold in August versus 137 in September. Buyers have choice right now, with 3,811 active listings region wide, and they are taking their time.

Three things matter most for a condo sale in this market:

• Strata health. In a buyer's market, buyers read strata documents carefully. A well funded contingency reserve and no looming special levy are selling features, not paperwork.
• Pricing against the benchmark, not last spring. Condos that held value did so at realistic prices. Overpricing in a market with this much inventory means sitting while competing units sell.
• Condition and presentation. With more listings to choose from, buyers skip the units that need work unless the price reflects it.

What This Means for Buyers

• If you are choosing between a condo and a house, start with the monthly reality, not just the purchase price. A condo's lower price usually comes with a monthly strata fee, while a house brings maintenance, insurance, and utility costs of its own. Compare the full monthly picture before you decide.
• The condo market's steadiness is not a guarantee. September was one month, and it followed a much busier July and August. Treat the trend over six months or longer as the signal, not a single month.
• Choice is your advantage right now. With inventory at 3,811 listings and sales slowing, you can afford to be selective, to ask for strata documents early, and to negotiate on price and terms rather than rushing.

What This Means for Sellers

• If you own a condo, your segment held value better than detached homes this year, especially on the Peninsula. That is a genuine selling point, but it only helps if your price reflects today's benchmark rather than last year's hopes.
• If you own a house, expect buyers to compare your home against a deep pool of listings. Pricing for today's conditions, not last spring's, is what gets a sale in a buyer's market.
• If you are selling one type and buying the other, softer conditions often show up on both sides of your move. A downsizer selling a Core house and buying a Peninsula condo is trading a segment that eased 2.0 per cent for one that rose 3.4 per cent, so run both sides of the numbers before you commit.

Clarity Before Commitment

September's numbers do not declare a winner between condos and houses. They describe two segments responding differently to the same market: houses cooling modestly from high prices, condos holding steady at the price point where the most buyers can still act. Which one fits you depends on your budget, your timeline, and how much maintenance you want in your life, not on a headline.

With more than 18 years in Greater Victoria real estate, from development and land planning to helping families buy and sell, I am here to make the process simpler at every step.

Have questions about your next steps? Reach out for a no-pressure chat.

This post is general information only and is not legal, tax, or financial advice. For advice on your specific situation, please speak with a qualified professional.

Market figures: Victoria Real Estate Board, September 2026 statistics (463 total sales; 239 single-family, 137 condominiums, 53 townhomes; 3,811 active listings; Victoria Core benchmarks: single-family $1,280,100, condominium $547,800; Westshore and Peninsula benchmarks as reported); Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026 policy rate decision.

Matt Peulen | RE/MAX Camosun | 250-589-5991 | [email protected] | www.mattpeulen.com

Have questions about your next steps? Contact Matt through the contact page or email him directly.

Five growth pockets backed by adopted plans and real housing starts, and what they mean for your next move.

Growth does not happen by accident. It follows adopted plans, infrastructure spending, and where builders are actually putting foundations in the ground. Right now in Greater Victoria, those three signals line up in five places. If you are buying, these are the areas where new amenities and new homes will shape your daily life. If you own, they are the areas where demand and redevelopment pressure could change what your property is worth.

1. Harris Green, Downtown Victoria

Downtown Victoria is already the fastest-growing neighbourhood in the region, and the Victoria 2050 Official Community Plan, adopted in October 2025, doubled down on it. The plan allows four-storey housing across residential neighbourhoods and up to six storeys in priority growth areas, with the downtown core taking the largest share of new homes.

The project that says it loudest is Harris Green Village. Phase one brings two rental towers at Yates and Cook with 526 suites, 80 of them below market, targeted for 2028. Phases two and three, on the 900-block of Yates, add roughly 1,000 to 1,100 more units by the mid to late 2030s, including what would be the tallest residential building on Vancouver Island at 32 storeys.

Worked numbers: the City of Victoria's own plan identifies a need for 8,254 net new homes between 2021 and 2026, rising to 26,604 by 2041. A large share is earmarked for the urban core, which means Harris Green is the growth story of downtown for the next decade.

The big picture: downtown Victoria's growth is not speculative. It is approved, funded, and already under construction.

2. Uptown and the Douglas Corridor, Saanich

Saanich has quietly become the region's other growth engine. The province designated four transit-oriented areas in Saanich in 2024, including Uptown's multi-modal hub and the Victoria General Hospital exchange, and the municipality is steering mixed-use growth toward centres and corridors like Shelbourne Street and McKenzie Avenue.

Under-construction figures tell the story: just under 300 condominiums and roughly 1,100 purpose-built rentals are underway in Saanich, with lease-ups arriving through 2027. That is a meaningful pipeline in a municipality that historically built slowly.

The big picture: Uptown is evolving from a shopping district into a transit-anchored residential centre.

3. The Quadra-McKenzie Corridor, Saanich

The Quadra McKenzie Plan, adopted in July 2026 after three years of work, is the clearest roadmap in Greater Victoria. It concentrates growth at the Quadra and McKenzie Centre, the University Centre, Four Corners Village, and along both corridors, with buildings up to 18 storeys at the Centre Core and mid-rise housing along the corridors.

The numbers are ambitious. Saanich is facing a provincial target of 4,610 net new units by 2029, and around a dozen development applications totalling roughly 2,800 units are now working through the District. The standout is Aragon Properties' Cordova Bay proposal on the former Trio Ready-Mix lands, seeking approval for 1,160 units, up from about 350 a decade ago.

One honest flag: the October 2026 municipal election brought a council with several candidates who campaigned on "respectful development," and the Quadra McKenzie Plan was a stated sore spot for many voters. Approvals could slow. The plan is adopted, but the political appetite to execute it will matter.

The big picture: Quadra-McKenzie has the most detailed growth blueprint in the region, with election politics as the variable to watch.

4. Royal Bay, Colwood

Royal Bay is the region's biggest master-planned growth story outside the city core. New construction continues steadily, with new retail at The Commons adding the services that make a neighbourhood feel complete, and CMHC data shows Colwood holding its housing starts steady at 301 homes in the first five months of 2026 versus 290 a year earlier.

Royal Bay buyers are trading downtown proximity for new homes, waterfront access, and entry prices that sit well below the Victoria core. For families and first-time buyers, that trade has real appeal.

The big picture: Royal Bay is Greater Victoria's Westshore growth engine, with the starts data to back it up.

5. Langford, the Westshore

Langford has been the region's housing bellwether for two decades, and it still recorded the most detached-home sales of any major district in the Victoria Real Estate Board's July 2026 data, 39 versus 35 in the City of Victoria itself.

But there is a wrinkle worth knowing. Langford's housing starts fell 40 percent in the first five months of 2026, to 306 homes, as rising costs and a tougher stance from the current council cooled builder momentum. Langford remains the affordability story of Greater Victoria, but the pace of new supply is no longer guaranteed.

The big picture: Langford offers the most diverse housing and the most affordable entry points, though the pipeline of new supply has thinned.

What This Means for Buyers

• Buying near a growth pocket means buying into future amenities: grocery, transit, and services follow density. But it also means living through construction and competing with new supply when you eventually sell.
• If your timeline is five years or longer, planned growth is a tailwind. Neighbourhoods with adopted plans, transit investment, and active construction tend to hold value better through cycles.
• Look past the marketing. Ask whether growth is backed by an adopted plan and actual starts, or just a promise. The CMHC numbers above show a wide gap between municipalities with pipelines and those without.

What This Means for Sellers

• If you own near a growth pocket, you own in a supply zone. Selling before a wave of new homes completes can mean less competition at your price point.
• Densification potential can lift land value, especially for properties near corridors and transit-oriented areas. A rezoning conversation with the right guidance can be worth having before you list.
• Growth is not uniform. A property two streets off the corridor can behave very differently from one on it. Location detail matters more in growth areas, not less.

Clarity Before Commitment

Nobody can predict exactly how fast a neighbourhood will grow, but plans, permits, and construction data give you something better than a guess. They give you a direction and a pace. The five areas above have all three in their favour, which is why they sit at the top of the watch list for the next 5 to 10 years.

With more than 18 years in Greater Victoria real estate, from development and land planning to helping families buy and sell, I am here to make the process simpler at every step.

Have questions about your next steps? Reach out for a no-pressure chat.

This post is general information only and is not legal, tax, or financial advice. For advice on your specific situation, please speak with a qualified professional.

Market figures: City of Victoria, Victoria 2050 Official Community Plan (adopted October 2025); CMHC housing starts data via the Victoria Residential Builders Association, June 2026; District of Saanich, Quadra McKenzie Plan and provincial housing target statements.

Matt Peulen | RE/MAX Camosun | 250-589-5991 | [email protected] | www.mattpeulen.com

Have questions about your next steps? Contact Matt through the contact page or email him directly.